BPO : Yesterday, today and tomorrow!

 ‘Business process outsourcing’, expansion of a three-letter word, BPO: brings food on the table of millions of Indians. This industry employees people in scores and mostly from the segment of the society in need of dire uplifting, immediate infusion of funds to make survival possible. BPO in the last 20 years has successfully created a new breed of the middle class, a layer just above the poverty line; a zone of youth, energy, aspirations, and dreams. The socio-economic classes above this layer snort at this group of hardworking professionals mostly because they consider call centre workers less educated (70%+ are indeed not even graduates) and not particularly well off (60%+ make just about minimum wage). Social stigma and prejudice are associated with this group all too easily and all too often. I have spent a portion of my professional career in this segment, working alongside women and men who bear the cross of biases proudly.

You should know this though that the thing about stereotypes is that ‘not all of them are based in reality’.

In my experience, I have found this group to be enterprising, smart, hardworking, sincere and forward-looking. These assemblages are also uniquely liberal, vocal and willing to participate in the change: both societal and those that shape the contours of business and economy of the country. This constituency is often not given the credit it deserves for taking 'working nights' into the mainstream. Outsourcing service providers are also not given the accolades it merits for bringing in young women to the workforce - paving way for social equality and financial liberation of the gender neglected for far too long. This industry is also the reason why computing and smartphones could become popular in an otherwise technologically backward country, like ours. A first close look at a working computer happened in the training rooms of their employers, for these millions of Indians. So in a way, the groundwork of creating a country that is conversant with computing and digital way of working has been prepared by this industry too, to the extent of its numbers.

1st decade of boom, followed by fast-paced 5 years and then the last 5 years of transformation was punctuated by the pandemic in early 2020. Things began looking shaky. It, however, did not take too long, for things to change completely. Let’s take one metric - work from home.

• Before pandemic.
  • Less than 1/10th of the workforce was working from home.
    • Only about 4 out of 10 in these 1 out of 10 used to be from the front line.
• A year in the pandemic.
  • 56% of all operations (at the peak of the pandemic) shifted base from office to home.
    • The rest did not or in some cases could not, for:
      • Logistical roadblock - transportation of computing infra and broadband connectivity.
      • The willingness of the clients to operate in the slump.

A study conducted says this :

The industry saw a double-digit decline in managed services in the second quarter of this year, with total global spending down 16%. A Deloitte poll conducted in April 2020 showed that 32% of businesses believe the end of the pandemic will bring with it a reduction in outsourcing.

One would assume that with things stacked the way they are, this industry would have lapped the change and must be working hard to re-invent itself, while it is true for a small and progressive section of the industry, the majority are still prisoners of the past - and in this reluctance to change lies the biggest folie of this otherwise upbeat industry.

A survey was conducted to find out how the workers would like to continue work in the future?

• 46% of the staff said that they are willing to continue working from home, as it helps them do better and also gives them time and resources needed to take care of their stuff at home. A win-win situation they say.
• The balance, 54% wish to return to the office.

One might think that aggregation of how individual employees think may not be enough for us to conclude how the industry as a whole thinks; especially the leadership. And there comes another segment of the study which, for the lack of a better term is - Perplexing.

• Only half of the BPO leaders think that the delivery, infra, environments, objectives of operation will change after we would have seen the pandemic off. The rest which is another half of the industry leaders believe that as soon as it is over, it is going to be a return to yesterday’s years. People going back to brick and mortar, office-based production.

A half is a significant volume which is still not for the permanent change, therefore - it is safe to assume that, what we are going to witness will bear the semblance to a hybrid model.

The question, however, is that is this the right approach? Will the world be better served with it?

Well, I for one, believe that this industry has reached a breaking point. What do I mean by "breaking point", you might wonder?

Here, 

• Believers in BPO will continue to pump capital and also see a surge in volume in the medium term. The assignments that the large players leave, don’t drop dead right away it first goes to the smaller operator for some time and then moves to the automation assembly, if not to the bin. This in-between period can be confused as the period of growth.
• Powered by popularity and simplicity of 'digital and distributed operations', the cost of entry, a barrier, has evaporated suddenly, which is bound to result in a spurt in a number of small players, (less than 500 seats). They too will get business in the medium term, the same waterfall logic of the economy will support them.
• Shifting demands - will create the illusion of growth.

So then the question is that, will such a strong economic force, a force for the good suddenly disappear? Will BPO become extinct in the next couple of years? The answer to that question is no. It won't, it will exist for some more time but just as landlines survive today but they do not mean much in the grand scheme of things. Like Smartphone has taken the place of PSTN, cognitive conversational AI-based tech solution will oust the current phone-based BPO industry. I pray, that it should not be seen as a bad outcome, 3 decades of glorious run built on an army of semi-skilled workforce generating billions upon billions in revenue is not a mean feat but as with most things, we are at the cusp of massive change, witness the change as it is happening.

I believe that what will become of the BPO industry can be understood by these phenomena.

Business Offering

• Voice to Technology: Primary offering of the BPO service providers will have to shift from phone-based conversational service to Technology platform based servicing such as no-code augmentation of ChatBOTs to the maintenance of Voice BOTs. BPOs will have a role to play in the training of the voice BOTs and other RPA operations. From 100% delivery to 90+% Audit and training that is the domain in which outsourcing is to shift.
• Voice to data: Data cleaning, alignment and error correction in upload and running of data operations, will be a new line of business for the BPO.
• Frontend operations to backend: Backend controls to do with designing and maintaining workflow operation will be another source of revenue for the BPO of tomorrow.

Operating Model

• Outcome-based billing: Transaction-based billing is soon going to be a thing of the past, servicing will be measured by outcome. So instead of how many calls/email answered (AHT based billing) to conversion/satisfaction based billing will kick in. Organisations are going to come out of volume game in the near future and focus on the delivery of the business KPIs exclusively.
• Distributed work: Work from home is a reality that can no longer be suppressed. This change is destined to alter the very concept of business continuity planning and execution.
• Lag in operation: Service operation is going to shift from current 'real-time' arrangement to 'scheduled framework' which will reduce the application of strengths of labour arbitrage. The volumes will become more and more predictable rendering WFM less and less applicable.
• Consultative Solution: BPOs, are poised to play a key role in the design of processes and will be involved in operations related to processing re-engineering, identifying errors in automation and in training the Artificial Intelligence models. Service philosophy design is also going to become the forte of the high-end BPOs.

People and culture

• Low-end data work: Bulk hiring of people who can conduct basic data Ops, to do with learning from and training of data models will begin.
• Upskilling: About 30% of the current staff will be upgraded to work alongside the machines on either data cleaning or audit/training of the models.
• Openwork,: Gig economy, specialised roles in BPOs are no longer going to be full-time employment roles, subletting of work and employing talent on a project basis will become the compulsion of the cost model that BPOs will have to operate under.

Sooner the industry accepts the facts as they stand today, the better will the next version of the industry be. I am excited to be a part of this inspiring change.

Do share your views with me on lk@lavkush.co.in

Have a good Sunday!

2020, a year that was!

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” - 

Charles Dickens!

I have been struggling to find a wholesome expression to sum the year 2020. I’m indeed guilty of spending a few nights mulling over it; there is no easy way to say everything that this year brought upon us in a comprehensive,  concise, and calm manner, but in my belief, Dickens does a good job of capturing the soul of times like these, so I humbly borrow from him, the little para that you just read. If we do survive to a future that reflects upon the current pandemic with the same luxury, abundance, and ease with which we contemplate over the World War II, and the earlier debilitating pandemics, namely cholera, plague and influenza that rocked the subcontinent between 1817 and 1920; we would perhaps do a better job of quantifying the impact. It is unbelievably hard to capture history as it is being made and also to react to it in a desalinate way, at the same time. We’re a year into it and the menace is still unfolding, the world does not know how will it end or if it will ever end, at the time of chronicling this. But I have faith in the collective wisdom of the human race - we shall overcome! 

In this article, therefore, I try to catalogue a few trends which I found most fascinating, in the year 2020: 

• Shifts in global politics.
• The global order and the virus.
• Protests and civil rights movement.
• Societal shifts 
• Redefined relationship with Technology 
• Unequal world, humongous human cost.
• Economy 
• Cost of the virus.
• A view of the future

Global Politics 

The global order and the virus 

2020 will live as an ugly spell of death and destruction in the memory of many who unfortunately had to gawk at it from close quarters, but I must also point out that it has also been an incredible year of human collaboration, co-operation and resilience. The virus was an addition to a long list of thing that the world disagrees on yet it also opened the door for historic colluding, of a magnitude observed never before. The year preceding this annus horribilis of 2020, marked the unbridled rise of right-wing politics around the world. From world oldest democracy (USA) to the world’s largest (India) - smell of totalitarian instincts of their elected governments became so unapologetically apparent that the public discourse around the world began to wonder if the very concept of democracy had come under the clouds. Strong, Alfa male, nationalistic leaders ascended to power riding the wave of protectionism, propagandist nationalism, religious supremacy and they began to lock borders, crushing dissent and reassessing the authenticity of the nationality and patriotism of the very people who voted them to power. Between the unresolved and ongoing trade war between America and China and Hungry becoming a constitutional dictatorship looming large over the world - it looked like the era of liberal globalisation may be coming to an unhappy end. And right at that moment, a single-cell organism which crossed over to Humans from its Bat predecessors in one obscure little corner of the world in a society (China) as closed as a tin of beans, engulfed the entire world in less than 3 months, hence proving that despite the surround sound on going local the world continues to be an interconnected place, more now than ever in human history. What followed the spread was a streak of global co-operation as scientist, virologist, epidemiologists, and medical professionals began to share notes and knowledge on the threat: the common enemy united the intellect of the world, as a result, we achieved something that was unheard of in the past: getting close to a viable vaccine within a year of a noble disease. Though at this stage, I must qualify the statement by saying that the jury is still out on the impact of the vaccine, lab results are encouraging though. So while on one end countries are closing down becoming inward-looking on the other natural need to communicate and collaborate in the spirit of the larger common good is also just as equally making itself known. And there is overwhelming evidence to the belief that the balance is once again tipping in the favour of globalisation. Unless the R&D and manufacturing abilities of the globe are not combined there is no way the world is coming out of this.

Protests and civil rights movements.

Dead people do not disagree, the living and the thinking do.

The most beautiful thing about living in the free world is the privilege to express one’s views, ideas and beliefs freely, to not be frightened to differ and disagree, even with those who happen to be in positions of power. This idea is utopian, but as the state encroaches upon our personal liberties under the gag of providing us with security and services, in the modern world, we know that as a society we are losing control and our independence is being chipped away. The transfer of power from the citizens to the state, the degradation, however, is so gradual that a vast majority of the population does not even take notice, they move on with their day to day life. This is how societal changes come about, both for the good and for the worse. But in the midst came a few moments which were huge, radical, clamorous and harsh, and those became the cause of the uprising. 2020, got punctuated by many such events, globally. I would like to believe that these demonstrations have done a great service to the values of liberalism, equality, justice, democracy, pluralism and right to life and dignity across the world. Here is a list of a few most important movements of 2020, in my assessment. 

• CAA/CAB NRC Protest - The year 2020 opened in the middle of the resolute chorus of dissent questioning the discriminatory law that the Indian parliament passed, which many believe was framed to exclude Muslims from gaining or even remaining (NRC) Indian citizen thereby the fulling long-cherished dream of the BJP and the RSS to turn Secular India into a Hindu Rashtra. Scores of Indians gathered, led by ladies of Shaheen Bagh, the storm engulfed the entire nation and in no time, mini Shaheen Bhags appeared in all major Indian cities. Various NGOs and civil society groups along with student unions joined the protest. The event shook the soul of the nation, a protest that continued for over 100 days in biting cold. The government used every trick up its shelves to break the protests but people determined to exercise their democratic rights did not back off. As happens in most cases violence erupted, which quickly took the shape of an ugly riot, unleashing untold damage of lives and property, I must call out here that one community suffered disproportionately than the other. The investigation is under progress and the case is sub judice. Protestors were arrested, suffered brutal force of the state and the police. A year later one is tempted to assess if the movement achieved anything? I say it did, CAA/CAB is yet not implemented and the macho government did concede by making multiple public announcements denouncing the idea of NRC, taking a U-turn from their previous position. No less than the supreme leader, the PM made several speeches, re-assuring the nation that no Indian will lose their citizenship. So I note, that yes, people succeded in getting their voices heard. But let us also not forget that the law has not been repealed and therefore the possibility of the monster rearing its nasty head in the future again can't be completely ruled out.

• HongKong Protest for democracy - Demand for democracy and independence of the judiciary remained at the centre of this uprising. Here is how the BBC described it. 

“Hong Kong's protests started in June against plans to allow extradition to mainland China. Critics feared this could undermine judicial independence and endanger dissidents. Until 1997, Hong Kong was ruled by Britain as a colony but then returned to China. Under the "one country, two systems" arrangement, it has some autonomy, and its people more rights. The bill was withdrawn in September but demonstrations continue and now demand full democracy and an inquiry into police actions. Clashes between police and activists have become increasingly violent, with police firing live bullets and protesters attacking officers and throwing petrol bombs.”

Did, this protest do any good, we know it for the fact that it did. Not only did it give believers in democracy faith in its idea but it also demonstrated to the world that how common people rise to the occasion to make change happen, even when they are in direct confrontation with the regime as unreasonable as the Chinese communist party.

• Black Lives Matter - Brutal killing of George Floyd in cold blood, jolted the soul of America and exposed how deeply is racism ingrained in its society. It sparked global outrage, his life did not go in vain, it became the reason for igniting the spirits of the civil rights movement across the world: from Twitter to streets. Strong chants of #BlackLivesMatter filled the atmosphere. It became the reason for America to introspect, from popular celebrity to everyday common American, people joined the chorus and gave voice to the voiceless. Articles were written to expose the history of injustices against the people of colour in American society. Living rooms in America united in speaking against prejudice. The agitation got mulled by violence and brut force of the state that followed. One could ask did it achieve anything? The answer is yes, it did .. not only did it bring the focus back on the need for racial equality but it also inspired people to speak up against discrimination. With the benefit of hindsight one could say that if it wasn’t for this movement, Trump would not have suffered a humiliating defeat in the presidential election that followed. 

• Farmers agitation - Drunk on majority India’s ruling party got 3 controversial farm bills passed into law by ramming them through the floors of both the houses of the parliament, in fact, a voice vote was deceitfully deployed to push it through. All of this happened despite grave and qualified objection to the bill by the parties in the opposition. Farmers were quick to understand that its implication will leave them not only poorer but it is designed to structurally make them subservient to the corporates. Farmers of the state of Punjab and Haryana, which have benefited the most from the government-operated markets are spearheading the demonstration, which is in its 30th day, on the day of writing this article. Unhappy peasants have decided to block all entry points of the national capital, they have been on the highway at various border points. Singhu Border has become the epicentre of this movement. Farmers from across the country are extending their support and are united in the cause to push the government to repeal these acts that were passed without consultation or discussion with the stakeholders. The attitude of the Government thus far, however, has been arrogant, they seem determined on not backing up from their stand and are using everything within their power to discourage the farmers. This agitation is unique in many ways, the farmers have set up a temporary village at the sight of the protest, there is community kitchen running the service of free food, small clinics have been set up giving free medical support, a makeshift barbershop has also been installed to take care of the grooming needs of the protestors and even this is being done free of charge, massage chairs have been installed too. Free distribution of all kinds of articles that they might need to get by is being done. Coming together of a diverse community is a big victory of this movement. Weather-beaten faces of the farmers lodged in trucks, trollies and stopgap tents are a scene of courage, devotion and belief in democracy. We at this stage do not know how will the protest go, whether it will gain its objective or not, but it has certainly succeeded in getting the nation to pause and admire their grit; that in itself is no less than a victory. The growers have started their own newspaper and have also set up an IT cell to control the digital narrative. 

I cannot but point out to you below commonalities between these 4 important protests that we briefly spoke about.

• They were all leaderless mass movement, organised and led by common citizens. 
• Supported by not just the parties involved in the matter but by the larger community, overwhelming public support is something that makes them stand out.
• All peaceful democratic protests; against the regime that has despotic ambitions.

Democracies get strengthened when people participate in them and for that, we must be thankful to them for taking these causes forward. I personally, support each of them. 

Let’s get down to discussing the societal shifts that the world experienced in these troubled times. 

Redefined relationship with Technology

“Savagery - Slavery - Imperialism - Rule of law (Democracy) - Technology” 

This captures the progression that we have made as a race more or less, we have had a colourful past. When the overtly mobile, proudly interconnected, and benevolently interdependent world was attacked by the virus, it came to a screeching halt. The early part of the year was marked by empty skies, grounded aircraft, people locked inside their homes (some on their own will and others owing to Government imposed lockdown). It all looked too different too unreal and too harsh, to be true. A world devoid of free physical connection in the interest of observing social distancing took refuge in the virtual world. Internet became the backbone of our lives. From schools to businesses everything has become virtual, computing got inextricably integrated with everyday life, we now socialise on platforms (Zoom, Meet and team) and not so much in places (cafes and bars). Barring industries that require either a high degree of secrecy (R&D, Policy and Govt), machinery (Manufacturing) or isolation (Hospital, High energy operations) everything else has become virtual. Some of the trends that emerged as a result are: 

• Work From home - Distributed and digitalised work has become an accepted way of working, so much so that many organisations have announced their plans of giving away conventional office structure completely.
• Virtual platform - Meeting platforms like Zoom, Meet, Teams, BlueJeans and others have replaced boardrooms, birthday celebrations and in some cases even living room conversation. FaceTime and Video Call on WhatsApp more or less have become our preferred way of social interaction.
• E-Commerce and digital payment  - Contactless buying, a covid appropriate behaviour gave boast to online retailers and digital payment platforms (Google Pay, Phone Pay, Paytm). Online retailers like Amazon and Flipkart are now synonyms to shopping.
• Increased Screen Time - Imposed long periods of lockdowns did plenty good to the OTT platforms. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hotstar, are now the primary escapes for the Indian and the global audiences. With gyms, clubs, theatres, bars and restaurants shut, watching entertainment programs online has become the most popular way of spending time. Both personal and professional business started getting conducted on some kind of a screen. As a result, the average time spent on screen nearly doubled in 2020.
• Families realigned: The situation forced families to spend time together which had both sound and disastrous impacts. Mental health issues grew. Rampant domestic violence-plagued homes, worldwide.  

Economy 

Human Cost of the pandemic 

The virus diseased the global economy just as ghastly leaving millions across the planet without a mean of livelihood, it Imposed acute demand shortage which resulted in shrinking of the overall size of the economies. India is among the worst impacted. 

Here is an estimate presented by the economic times. 

"The Covid-19 pandemic has wiped out 81 million jobs in 2020 while there was 10% dip in labour income, pushing an estimated 22 million to 25 million into working poverty in Asia and the Pacific, says a new report by the International Labour Organization (ILO). "

Things just do not stop there, as per the world economic forum 2 out of 5 jobs lost may never come back. Either automation or shift in the consumer behaviour will wipe 40% of the low skill jobs, the impact of which is being seen on the weaker sections of the society.  Contactless way of life means eradication of physical labour to the extent possible. More and more people around the world are slipping back into poverty. Concerns related to malnutrition, stunted growth, infant mortality, rise in health-related complication, students dropping out of schools and colleges are on a rampant surge across the globe, the impact is disproportionately more in the poorer countries. Asia and Africa are among the worst-hit economically.

1,759,417, is the number of people who have succumbed to the virus globally thus far (as of Dec 26th). This number is maddening, we can’t begin to imagine the impact such high numbers would have had on the families and immediate communities. The mortality worldwide has been below 2%, at the time of writing this, and yet we’ve the misfortune of having lost so many people to the deadly virus. Those who have recovered from the infection aren’t completely out of the woods yet as the long term health impact of the infection is still unknown, scientists around the world are trying to assess the impact.

Corona Virus has been the most severe tragedy known to mankind. 

After assessing the geopolitical, societal impact of the virus let us try and measure how it might impact the future of the business and society. I must qualify the statement by saying that the disease is taking a new turn every couple of months leaving mankind anaesthetized. The latest in the trail of surprises was the two new strains of the virus that were discovered in England and South Africa - it is believed to be over 50% more infectious than the previous strain. It is however yet to be known that if the mutant will come with a higher death rate too. Scientists are trying to study the strain to figure the details out. A parallel study to understand how well the vaccines will alter the course of the virus, both the old and the new strain, is also underway. But what we can say with certainty is that even if the virus is not deadly it will cause more net deaths as it is more infectious, as much as twice, at any rate. And more infections means more deaths. 

Humans have survived for so long because we are a specie that specialises in the art of adaptation, so let’s come together to imagine what might the post-Covid world look like.  

A view of the future 

No matter which way we choose to look at it, there is no way, we can imagine a world which does not bear the emblem of the Covid all over it. Things are going to change for sure, things would have changed even if this calamity had not come through, but with its impact being so pervasive one is tempted to assume that, more extreme versions of the difficulties that we confront today are the things that we should expect to face in the world that is to come, that is if there is ever a post-Covid world. 

As Arundhati Roy puts it, "Covid is a portal of change"

Here are a few things which I believe will catch on. 

• Gag work culture - Specialised workforce getting engaged and paid on a project basis is going to become popular. Full-time employment will become less and less prevalent. Survival of the fittest will naturally favour those who are great at what they do as outcomes will get very closely related to association, unlike an employment contract of today, in which inefficiencies are also built-in. It will create a new class of workers. Hyper specialisation will become the norm. As a result of which structure long term peruse of delivery is expected to go down. 
• Digital Economy - The shift from physical to virtual that we have already experienced in this year is only going to intensify as a result of which physical infrastructure is going to lose its value. Networks and cloud spaces are going to mean much more than swanky offices, in days to come. Digitalised and distributed operating models will succeed. 
• Regionalised supply chain - ‘Just in time’ inventory management methods may have run its course and so has centralised manufacturing. Corporations realise the benefits of having distributed supply chain and manufacturing, as a result of which China in the next decade is going to lose business to cheaper markets like the Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Africa. Rise of organised and industrialised labour in these markets will be observed.
• Social contracts: Our conduct is strictly guided by social conventions that have come about of thousands of years of practice, the expectations that have undergone a transformation in this pandemic is bound to spill over, as a result, we will see a world which will be more and more transactional and short term. Relationships are about to be miniaturised in many aspects, employer-employee relationship, & "vendor-supplier" is the ones which will be most impacted.
• Multilateralism: We live in an unequal world, technological superiority needed to go about daily lives and run businesses are greatly concentrated in the US and to a small extent in Western Europe too, therefore, a case for technological collaboration will form the basis of the relationship and in exchange market will be opened. It is like importing technology from a nation and then opening the markets for them to sell their products.   
• Digital nomads: Urban centres have remained the nucleus of economic activities, opportunities that are generated as a result, attract migration towards it. Rising distributed and digitalised work is expected to spread the established workforce, which means that people with experience will fuel reverse migration and the new talent will keep flocking towards the cities. Balance in movement is expected to improve the ecology of our cities. The urban planning of the next decade will look drastically different from the decade past.
• Digital transformation: Adoption of technology by the users will force the supplier to adapt to it, the next few years will see a rise in the digitisation of work and operations. Platforms will become even more powerful. Amazon and Google’s stronghold on the world is only going to get tighter in days to come. Countries will invest in their own digital infrastructure, to cut down reliance on other nation. China model of digital infrastructure will come in emerging economies, India would be the first one to embark on that journey. 
• Nationalism: ‘My nation first, Make America Great Again, Make in India’, these sentiments are not going anywhere, the pandemic has only improved their prospects. We will see the politics around the world become more and more local, as political parties promise the restoration of the damage that Covid has inflicted, policy formation will get inspired by it. 

if I were to summarize in one line we would say that we are headed for a brave new world!!

Thanks for reading a rather long article.

Poor, the lesser Indian!

The bloody virus has plagued every aspect of our lives, in ways that we do not even fully comprehend, yet. Our exploratory endeavors educate us of something new, progressively incriminating about the pathogen- we lose to it, every day! But as we’re wired to suppose - we keep reminding ourselves of the need to be patient and to concentrate on our collective survival strengths. We keep reiterating to ourselves that- "we, the humans, are the most superior of all God’s creations and that we will emerge triumphant from it". And it is not entirely suspicious to swear by such a principle if our evolutionary chronicles are any indication, we have indeed withstood. But what is also true and should not be reduced to a ‘nihilism rant’ is that not all of us ever have. Every tragedy claims its share of humans before it fancies to bid us goodbye. So, in that sense, we suffer even when we eventually win.

I sincerely hope and pray that the war against the virus ends in the favour of humankind, sooner than later!

But I can’t possibly overlook, those who have already lost more than they can ever recover, in this fight for no fault of theirs. If independent reports are to be believed those who have succumbed to the stress of displacement, cruel destitution, and painful starvation have far outnumbered victims of COVID19 infection (as recorded in the books of the Government), thus far. At this stage, it will be being unkind to the truth, to escape stating that various journalistic reports have called to question the authenticity of the figures that our elected representatives are putting in the public domain. BBC reports and various other local publications have pointed to alleged underreporting of COVID19 infections and even deaths. The credibility of the Indian administration with respect to the data that it publishes has suffered a huge blow, since they were found tinkering with GDP formula, censoring unemployment figure and subverting farmer suicide data. Assult of truth and facts from the current administration has been so apparent and brazen that Indian PM is often found on the wrong side of the truth when fact-checked; his commentary on India's screening of foreign travelers, providing help to the poor, etc have been very unbecoming of the chair that he holds.

We're the only democracy in which the PM has held ZERO press conference in the last 6 years. Even the horrific COVID19 crisis hasn't qualified in being a worthy enough reason for him to take a break from his resolute abstention of responding to free questioning by the press. This is not to say that he has been silent or absent. He did address the nation, thrice 'spoke a great deal' without saying anything substantive, let along explaining, the burning issues of the current crisis. In fact, his monologues have more in common with his election speeches than giving the nation details of the work that is being done to ward off the risks that the virus brings to the health, wellbeing, and the economy of the country. A few of those questions are:

Why India is among the lowest testing countries? Even the rogue state of Pakistan tests more than we do on a per million basis.

How have we ramped up the medical infrastructure in the lockdown?

What is the nation doing about 162 million people who have lost jobs in the last two months?

Why did he host the US President ignoring the COVID19 threat? We know the heavy price that the city of Ahmedabad is paying his unconcerned and ill-advised showmanship.

Why did the parliament keep running, in March?

How is India responding to the gravest humanitarian crisis that it has faced since partition?

Why has the mighty Indian state forgotten its poor?

When he talks about social distancing why does he not acknowledge that only 5% of Indian households have a room per person? Why does he forget that 18% of the Indian homes have less than 6 feets space between two walls?

When it is being advised that washing hands can save lives, why does he forget that 100 million Indians do not have access to clean water and that 13% of Indian cities are water negative?

India gets its dose of information from a junior IAS officer and occasional sound bites from the health minister. ICMR does its thing too, but they are a body of science and not a communication agency, so I take what comes out of their announcement in that light. There have been over 4.5K guidelines and clarification that have been issued from the Govt on how they wish to conduct the lockdown - such a messy response does not inspire confidence and signals toward lack of organization.

We still do not know why the Govt kept saying that Masks are not essential for common people till March end?

Why does it still publicize Aayush Ministry tips of warm water etc when there is zero scientific evidence of it helping the COVID situation?

You’d wonder why I bring the Government and the PM in the stands; there are two reasons for it. 

I still believe, naively though, that we’re a democracy, in which an ordinary citizen can hold its elected establishment and head of state to account. By asking questions and demanding accountability. 

Secondly, I believe that democracies have worked thus far because, essentially, all democracies shape their character around the principles of citizen welfare. A system in which the state does not become the heartless, evil, and ignorant tax collecting BIG BROTHER but a compassionate friend with social responsibilities towards its citizens. Inequality of opportunity, disproportionate distribution of wealth, social injustice, and lack of individual capacity of the citizen to solve structural problems, makes the idea of electing Governments romantic to the common masses. 

Constitutional representative democracies promise the voiceless a say in the process. It is supposed to be transparent, participative, and nondiscriminatory, everyone above a certain age is allowed to cast their ballot. A careful examination of the demographic of those who vote, reveals that people who are in the bottom half of the economic and social pyramid are the most obedient and responsible in the discharge of their democratic obligations. The bottom half of this country is acquiescent and submissive; they vote, they follow all the rules... most of the time, pay all the taxes and expect virtually nothing in return, and yet, with every progressive election, all they get is a raw deal. They’re also often on the receiving end of police brutality, harassment by local municipal authorities and the insensitive ‘Hafta’ collecting local goons. Every party, all politicians, without any exception, appeals to them, beg for their support and yet forget them after reaching the corridors of power. In the entire political history of independent India, you would not find one incident where a leader would have eloquently not expressed their compassion for the poor.

“For the people, of the people and by the people”; we are the world's largest democracy, a matter of pride for us. When we mention this to our friends in China, Russia, and UAE, they envy us. By way of the introduction we say, we come from a land of progressive, liberal, and humanitarian values, one that is egalitarian, just and runs on the rule of law. We flash ‘freedom of speech’ as a badge of honor. We tell the nondemocratic world we can openly and without any fear, question, criticize, not just the current rulers but also those who were the founding fathers of our nation - such is the tolerance of our society.   

But are we though? 

What formed the defining moment/ picture of the great republic of India, in the last 90 days? Crisis does not weaken us; it only exposes our weakness, which we are either unaware of or we deliberately and deviously ignore. 

I do not wish to present the 'chronology' of events that followed the first confirmed COVID19 case in our country, I assume, quality newspapers (there are not very many of them left, I trust The Hindu though) would have kept you adequately informed. Blinded by his affection for theatrics and his commitment to the principle of 'ruling by shock and awe' our PM locked our continent size country of 1.3 billion people in a heartbeat; he gave the nation a notice of 4 hours. This perceptively resulted in an overnight loss of livelihood for a vast majority of this country; scores of poor people who have already endured the suffering of demonetization, botched up GST implementation, high decibel continuous hate narrative, and limping slow growth on the economy - were left hanging in the balance. They were quietly pushed out of work and thus they had to take to the treacherous roads back home.  

They asked for nothing, no favors as such: any more than transport back home. These hardworking and honest Indians were ready to pay for it as well. But a government drunk on power, that does not get tired in repeating the delusional 5 trillion dollar economy target by 2024, choose to look the other way. Painful visuals of tens and thousands of people walking inhumanly long stretch home on foot with their belongings filled virtually every corner of social media and some portion of the TV news as well. Responsible newspapers and media outlets outraged about it and yet nothing. Well-meaning people knocked at the door of the supreme court and in the first go, the court seemed convinced by the false and utterly shameful argument that the Govt presented in its defense, in April. It said that people are not on the roads and those who are have been instigated by the media. Modi administration even tried using this opportunity to censor and silence the reporting. 

In the meanwhile, the number of helpless and hapless Indians on the highways and roads kept swelling. Civil society/NGOs extended a helping hand. But the capacity of kindness and charity from ordinary citizens does not stand a chance against the restrictions imposed by the mighty state; as a result, things kept getting worse. Heart-wrenching and mind-numbing videos of mothers rolling their kids on broken suitcases, kids cycling their parents across hundreds of KMs, pregnant women being carried on a cart, a lady giving birth to a child while on the journey and then resuming her walk back home anew within hours of delivering a child - filled the mind space of concerned citizens. It cluttered the idea of shiny new India that our rulers want us to believe in.

Add block

Credible international media outlets and a handful of Indian journalists kept showing truth to the power but nothing changed in the all of April and May 2020. 

40+ days into the disaster, news of people dying in inhuman conditions started trickling from all corners of the country. The horrifying accident which killed 11 people on the railway tracks; traumatized the conscience of the country. The tragic incident caused massive outrage in response to which our uncaring and unconcerned Govt announced: some trains and a few buses which were nowhere even close to demand and to make matters worse, they started charging the poor and desperate people even more than the usual fare. The monster was raging at the poor.

Some more outrage got added to the already growing clamor in support of those who were dying and facing the hardship of their lifetime. Financially weak people were robbed of their dignity and were forced to beg. They have no option but to survive on the mercy of charity. In the meanwhile, our PM was busy with his ‘maan ki baat’ and rolling out carefully considered and crafted support consolidation campaigns in which he asked citizens to clap and light Diyas: he gave it the cover of appreciation of COVID warriors.

The country obliged!

Deaths in trains and on the roads became an everyday affair. The opposition proposed to pay for those stranded and then the Govt woke to the possible loss of confidence, that it might cause if the opposition succeeded in helping the poor. The Supreme court too, many say, woke from the long slumber and ordered free transport, food, and water for these citizens, in the last week of May 2020 (this crisis, mind you, began in the last week of March 2020). In the meanwhile, citizens continue to suffer. Democracy is messy and hard but it works when citizens try to make it work. We hope that with Apex court's strong observation, things will get better for those impacted.

We need to analyze the role of the middle class and the rich in this nation, too. 

The indifference of the government does not hurt me as much as the apathy of the middle class and absolute denunciation of the poor, shown by the rich of this country. We, the privileged top 1% of the country, kept tweeting endlessly about how we miss our lives. Some showcased their culinary skills, others binged watched offerings of the OTT till they hated watching any other publication. Many of us picked up new hobbies and also brushed old ones, reconnected with our families, flaunted our riches in every imaginable way by participating in all kinds of mindless challenges on social media. In short, we indulged, while our fellow citizens went without food and water for days on end.

While we worked from home, little did we care about those who built our homes and guard them, those who helped us move around the cities and assisted us in our kitchens? We ignored them as though poor walking on the streets was some kind of pathogen that would infect us too. Our collective morality was as present as the prompt help of the government. Bapu's India happily denounced all its social responsibilities.

I am not overly generalizing, and I am in the know that some of us may have continued to pay our staff and cared about their wellbeing but we were a minuscule minority because if we all or most of us cared, our road would not have witnessed blisters on soles of 5 years old from walking the walk of death. Our governance template is democratic for sure but the social fabric of compassion that holds human values together has certainly been battered. There is no way in which innate class biases, hate, and disregard for the underprivileged can lead us to a better and brighter future, history teaches us that. Our future is more collective than we acknowledge. Capital security that has insulated us from the damage thus far may not always be as intact and solid as it is today and should fate were to look the other way would we ever like to be on the road barefoot under the scorching sun unaided is the questions that I’d like to leave you with?

Do think!

Till we meet again!

Co-existing with COVID19!



 

कारवाँ गुज़र गया, गुबार देखते रहे (Gopaldas, ’Neeraj’)

Yes the Virus is here, yes it is highly contagious and yes it is deadly!

So what do we do?

Fight, Freeze, or Flee?

I’m afraid to inform you ‘Fleeing’ is not an option. You gotta either confront the virus or hibernate into oblivion, perhaps for as long as you can count.

Q #1 - For how long should we let a microscopic pathogen dictate terms of our lives, determine the size of our aspiration, and deteriorate our collective determination? 

Q #2 - Why can’t we treat #COVID19 as one of the many other life-threatening challenges that we have come to live with? 

Q #3- Why should we submissively surrender?

(Before we go any further; I must mention in no uncertain terms that at NO time, should we ignore the warning or the guidelines issued by the competent Government authorities, pertaining but not limited to containment or treatment of the infected. Precaution, for now, is the cure, be smart, and comply.)

These questions are not coming from a place of ignorance or bravado. I am not an epidemiologist, or a virologist/immunologist or a healthcare professional with expertise in infectious disease, nor have I run or supervised public health response in a pandemic, ever. I’m one of you, the ordinary thinking citizen, who is learning a little about the virulence of our heartless invader from the newspaper, medical journal, research papers, and conversation with experts - every day! I am someone who decided to self-quarantine, in the last week of Feb this year (word of thanks and appreciation for my current employer who allowed me to do so, happily). So not in the line of fire just yet, but I do see, how lives of billions around the world are being altered, some more irreversibly then the others. The impact of the pandemic is ringing in all areas of our existence. Our enemy is using one of our key strengths and differentiators from other species: ‘Social connect’ against us, in plain sight. 

But, before we dive deep into to sludge of despair, allow me the liberty of bringing a few thoughts into your attention.

Q #1- Are we not better prepared to deal with anything of this magnitude now than any time in the entire history of humankind?

Q #2- Is it not a huge positive that we have tools like the ‘internet and the computer’ to run our lives despite restrictions that the virus harshly may impose on us?

Q #3- Isn’t medical science at its most advanced stage now than in the past?

Answer to all of the above is a resounding “YES” and therefore I say; if at all one of our fellow human beings could NOT have avoided eating BAT for dinner, then there wouldn’t have been a better time to do so than now. And, let me also put it out for your consumption that we are not required to be televangelical about the situation. False hope or needless motivation is not something that I’m trying to put forward here. I’m trying to place in our collective attention an alternative question to invite thoughts.

So, think of it as a grand brainstorming that I intend to do with all my regular and returning 10K readers.

(Pardon me for my inability to answer all of your emails but on this one, I’ll try to get to every one of your emails. When you write to me please have #Ask in your subject line, it will help me sort the questions)

Let’s wargame: What if the virus was to stay and never extinct? What if COVID19 turns out to be another cancer that humans do not know how to cure? (yes, pathology of both the ailments are different, but consider the only eventuality of both the conditions for this argument sake, thanks)

It is undeniably a scary proposition but as they say in the IAS academy (The Lal Bahadur Shastri National academy of Administration) when you are hit by a disaster plan for the worse, the absolute disastrous consequence that it can graduate to, and then solve for it. The idea is that size of the difficulty should always remain smaller than the spread of your preparation. And, so we are going by this ghastly hypothesis of the virus becoming a co-habitant of our planet. Let’s put time aside to think about the challenge exhaustively, from top to the bottom. The complete spectrum: from social, economic, psychological, national, cultural, religious, political to also those relating to foreign relations and domestic law and order. Please do not be superficial in your thought experiment or give in to the temptation of being narrow or being aggressively focused on self-interest, you’ve got to think deeply about it. All forecasters and economists are bringing in models that can send anyone in dizzy, let alone, those who survive on incremental gains from the capital (either of wealth or time and skill) that they employ to earn sustenance. No point denying that it is an unprecedented event and also a rare one, in which we find a great deal of convergence of views from noted thought leaders.

Now, let’s turn to the knowledge pool of history to find a few large scale disasters that humans have had to endure undesirably? Let’s say 

1. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918.

2. The great economic depression of 1930.

3. The global meltdown of 2008. 

4. Throw in the mix, the likes of HIV, Ebola, MERS, and previous SARS outbreaks, too.

Why do I pick public health emergencies and economic crisis for study? Well, because it makes for a good headline to say that we are choosing ‘life over livelihood’ but the harsh reality of our times is that without steady economic activities sustaining the cost of life is nearly impossible.

Pause at this stage, because studying these events will take you about 10 days, that is if you dedicate 3-5 hours to it every day. When you’re done with it come back and continue with the rest of the article.

Here is how the cast looked like in all of these.

• Upon developing an understanding of the crisis, estimations were made.

• Fear of losing the ‘regular’ loomed large.

• The new normal emerged. 

• The old ways got forgotten and the new normal became the norm, the usual.

This virus is not whipping the human race from the face of this planet, that only an asteroid will do, whenever it does. So let us jump to step 3 because 1 and 2 have been completed in the last 5 months or so since we discovered the unwanted guest, the Corona Virus.

Finding the ‘new normal’

As sub-step 1, let’s accept the virus and respect it for what it is. 

Scientists around the world are working round the clock to understand the vulnerabilities of the virus and ways in which we can attempt to neutralize it. Till they succeed we know that ‘social distancing’ is the way to go, along with other protective and precautionary measures like the triple-layer face mask and sanitization, etc, you get the idea. Would it have not been worse if we knew no way around it? We know now that as long as we do not come in direct contact with the pestilence we are good to go. So with that intel can we not reimagine our world? Yes, we can! Yes, it is not going to be an easy assignment because we have been building infrastructure optimized for efficiencies and space and this new arrangement is in fierce conflict with both of it.

But, there is a way around it. 

There is no easy answer but it must be found anyway, because it matters!

Imagine if we were to spread the demand and supply to fit the linear scale of time accommodating the social distancing norm? Simply put, if you spread what you used to produce in 9 hours to 24 - you’d end up achieving previous levels of output without exposing yourself to irresponsible risks, of course at the cost of efficiency but is it not better than having zero output, or an output reduced greatly by the imposition of social distancing norms?

Let me give you a service scenario from the contact center industry.

Precondition

• Imagine you had 100,000 customers to support in a 24*7 support window, but the bulk of your support requests came between 7 AM to 8 PM. 

• You had a workforce of 30 people to support the load of the requests.

Pre COVID19

• On the known inflow distribution you plot available staff hours. It was simple and straight forward, the physical infra was also built for it.

COVID19 Challenge

• You’re required to maintain a certain distance between two people and are also required to avoid the clustering of humans in any setup. So what do you do? 

Approach

You can now schedule not just your support agents but also customers to maintain the same level of support. That is spread the customers evenly across the 24 hours too.

A. Divide your customer base into three categories, preferably the elderly in the first 8-hour block of the day, others in the other two. 

• Educate customers about the rationals of this distribution and make them aware of their slots.

   B. Divide your workforce in three-shift, so in a space built to support 30 (actually you only build for 80% of the strength), distributed in the bunches, each of size 10 agents are accommodated. Social distancing is honored.

All three sets of customers will get equal support and the service provider also gets to fit the staff within the same infra without compromising on the need for social distancing.

Ok, before you jump rightfully to claim that all industries and setups are not linear. For example in the food industry, support volumes follow eating cycles and can not be staggered evenly throughout the day. And I agree with you. The broader point that I’m trying to argue here is that we will need to ‘think’ of newer ways of dealing with the situation within the space that restrictions leave for us and yet create what we must, without letting the virus either kill us or our economic progress.

On the other side of the same example: 

For all things administrative and managerial, there is a need for us to understand that, if we invest our energies on replicating ‘old practices’ as is in the new set up; we will fail miserably. This challenge should force us to question everything that we did earlier to figure out if they must be continued in the future too and must they be done, what is a newer way of doing it. Perhaps, a digital way of executing it must be explored.

Business Travel is a classic example: People used to practically live inside suitcases, is it not? Ask them, are they traveling now, and why not? The answer is ‘because they simply can’t they do not’. And that is the very principle that needs to be applied religiously and homogeneously. What will be a better time to adopt technology? All of us have been paying for the hardware, network, and tools for a long time. It is time we start using them too as our sole way of conducting our affairs, both personal and professional.

Let me give you the SOP: “Question everything that you do”

Imagine a scenario, where your job requires you to keep a track of telephonic conversation between two sets of people. 

Question:

1. Why should the conversation be telephonic? 

2. Can it not be moved to a digital medium? Zoom or any other platform that facilitates internet based exchange? 

3. Can you not tie the conversation to an inexpensive dialler?

Of course, you can. One way or the other.

This ultra-simple scenario may not do justice to the complexity of your situation; but remember I’m not trying to solve your specific issue, here, but simply and solely trying to orient you to question your ways of conducting yourself. Because all answers will emerge from it like they always have in the past.

Let us not permit the virus to decimate our creative thinking and problem-solving ability, we have a fertile brain that is perfectly capable of devising the solution. Let’s give it a chance. Lest you forget, we have evolved into our present form from a single cell organism, in the last 4.3 billion years. There is always a way out, as long as you’re determined to find one. 

Digital transformation is no longer, the one more thing that leaders and organizations used to do to gain superiority over their competition, it is now a necessity, a question of survival - so get on with it.

I refuse to remain afraid of the virus and I implore you to shun fear too. 

Let’s rebuilt our lives again, together.

I’ve published various articles in the past expressing my views on digital transformation: you may want to check them, on the website. Linking two of them here, which I find most relevant. 

Title : TRANSFORM DIGITALLY, NOW!

URL : http://www.lavkush.co.in/2018/11/transform-digitally-now/

Title : BEFORE INNOVATION .

URL : http://www.lavkush.co.in/2018/09/before-innovation/

To end this I’d like to leave you with a song that Late Mega Star Rajesh Khanna danced to on the silver screen when in the background it was being sung by the immortal Kishore Da.

मौत आनी है

आएगी एक दिन

जान जानी है

जाएगी एक दिन

ऐसी बातों से क्या घबराना

यहाँ कल क्या हो किसने जाना

Until we meet again!