Outsourcing and BPO; the past and the future!

Outsourcing exists because economic inequality has been a persistent reality of our world, and as far as we can tell it is not going anywhere. Both futurists and economists believe that whilst growth infused inequality improves the lives of those on the weaker side of the economy too, in balance, but at the same time, they also admit that it does little to reduce the gap between the two extremes - crazy wealthy and desperately poor. Growth, the world must have, as, without it, anywhere between 1 and 2 billion people across the globe will die of starvation. You might wonder why I say inequality makes the case in favour of outsourcing? “Shift and Lift” & “Same mess for less” were common terms that the western world used when they had to make an unofficial argument to export jobs east.

Yes, it is the snobbery of the developed world, but of a kind that gives hundreds of millions of people in the underdeveloped world a chance at life. Imagine if India did not export the fruits of its cheap human labour to the west, what % of India would have been penniless looking into an abyss of hopelessness? The thought alone will intimidate you, to put things in perspective, it will be close to 150 million people, without any source of income.

All outsourcing however is not created equal.

The society operates hierarchically, and business calls its regime-  ‘band’.

Human history gives enough evidence for us to know that as society progresses and becomes technologically advanced it renders the least complex and the most repetitive of its tasks to machines, leaving smart humans with time and energy to concentrate on solving intricate mysteries of the facets of the ever-evolving world. “Cognitive capital invested on relatively simpler tasks does not give satisfactory returns”, as a principle has been known for ages. Let’s use this frame to understand outsourcing.

Outsourcing exists in every industry that operates on planet earth. Let me give you a few examples. 

• Apple manufactures in Asia. 

• An overwhelming majority of software developers in cities like Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Gurgaon, Pune etc are developing and maintaining software owned by the west. 

• Third world countries (the third world is not an economic classification but a political one, countries that remained unaligned in the cold war era were given this label. Singapore is also a third world country), do financial accounting, transcription, translation and even train machine learning models with real-world data.

• Phone sales, customer service, credit card operations, travel logistics and loan processing - need I say more?

The way to classify the ‘band’, that I spoke about earlier is to judge a task by this simple standard.

• Have the people involved in outsourcing been academically trained in the same field? 

• Specialist outsourcing: If the answer to this question is a yes. Then you know that you are talking about high-value outsourcing. Like software (development and support), hi-end manufacturing etc.

• Generalist Outsourcing: If the answer to this question is negative, you know that what is being spoken about is low-value outsourcing: call centres (anything to do with phones), transcription, etc. 

At this point, you may be wondering why am I only insinuating about stronger currency hiring weaker denominations in the context of outsourcing? And you’re absolutely right, same currency outsourcing is a reality too. In fact, in the absolute share of manpower, it is roughly 60% that of all people working in outsourcing, but in revenue terms, it is just about 30%. You might wonder why 60% of people generate just 30% of the value? It is owing to the facts, listed below. 

• A vast majority of this outsourcing is generalist in nature. So unit pricing is abysmally low.

• The capital that enables politicians to try their electoral fortune comes from corporations, which want the minimum wages to remain as low as possible so that industries can remain competitive in the world market. As a result of which cheap labour is found in abundance, here.

• 98.99% of the tasks that these generalists perform can be automated, therefore, to remain relevant they are forced to operate at a cost that does not give the outsourcer compelling reasons to go all out to automate the workflow entirely.

Thus far we have covered the economic basis of outsourcing. Let us now look at the brief history of outsourcing in India. I shall focus on the BPO side of things, if you know me you’d know why and if you do not, read other articles on this subject that I have written and you’ll know.

Business historians classify outsourcing in these three different eras. 

The beginning of traditional BPOs from the 1900s to Mid 2000s.

• This was a straightforward period when consumerism was beginning to take gargantuan shape. The west needed a cheap solution to sell and service their customers, they started looking for countries that spoke their language reasonably well and offloaded the work to them. As they engaged with the east in this context they understood that they have tapped into an infinite pool of motivated, hard-working, sincere, hungry for growth cheap labour with plenty of skills to pull off generalist jobs well.

• Tasks after tasks kept pouring and India benefited by having an avenue of employment large enough to engulf its vast semi-skilled workforce.

• Wealth creation led to an increse in demand and indigenous manufacturing and distribution and real estate gained from it. 

• A high density of phone connectivity in the west enabled it.

The Medieval BPO Era: Omni Channel BPO 2000s to Late 2010s.

• West felt the need to cap their costs after nearly a decade long free for all outsourcing party. From this directional change, Indian players started offering goodies like process re-engineering, downstream innovation, process transformation and commitment to productivity enhancements, to keep the contracts alive.

• The phone was no longer the king of the reigns, the internet had made its entry into the homes (broadband) and in the hands (smartphone) of people. Asynchronous support channels gained ground, chat and email became popular too. 

• Other forms of work like simple MIS, basic data analytics and accounting processes also boomed in this era.

• In this period, the proliferation of phones picked up in India too and with it, large corporations began outsourcing their tele support, chat and email work to BPO service providers. Domestic BPO became a viable business. 

Contemporary Era (A): Insight-Driven BPO late 2010 and pre-pandemic.

• Corporations that had just come out of the slowdown in the west needed to tighten their belts. With great force, ‘lean and six sigma’ and similar standards became a part of the everyday routine for the Indian BPO industry. Providers burnt the midnight oil to achieve more with less. ‘Cutting waste’ became the mission of over a million people. As a result, a slew of process and product innovation made its way into the still flourishing industry.

• ‘Analytics with process transformation’ occupied the focal point of the industry.

        + Data-led process transformation.

                + Informed Insights-enabled digitisation.

    + Automation

+ Simple fetch and tell BOT.

+ Desktop automation.

+ RPAs.

 

Contemporary Era (B): Automation driven support late 2010 to Pandemic.

• There is a significant overlap between these two phases of outsourcing that is on account of the evolution of the outsourcers. Not every company woke up to the magic of automation at the same time. In Era A we have spoken about how the laggards of the industry reacted. In this section Era B, we are going to talk about the leaders and technology-first organizations. 

• The business landscape for the evolved part of the economy changed to proportions imagined by no one. The start-up revolution completely changed the way the world looked at business operations. Companies decided to trust algorithms for all rule-based tasks. Organisations like Ola and Uber were born, which was completely devoid of transactional support, the ‘application-only-operation’ became a thing. I know some of you are thinking about the brief period when both Ola and Uber used to take bookings on the phone. I must remind you that it was a period in which the organizations were educating the customers about this new technology, app-based operation. As it gained critical mass on the application, phones were switched off.

• Cheap data and economical smartphones came within the reach of the common man and what the west had experienced half a decade ago became the story of the economies of the eastern countries, too. 

• The organisation started working to reduce repeat with maniacal focus. Self-help was made cool.

• These technological advancements made their grand entrance into the scene, as well.

• Conversational AI.

• Advanced context-aware chatbots.

• OCR.

• Speech to Text and back to Speech - the whole cognitive stack. 

• Data modelling and advanced analytics. 

• ML gave machines an edge over humans involved in generalist tasks. 

• The little that was left of the traditional market was overwhelmed by the pandemic, which forced people to not only get acquainted but also comfortable with using support platforms and the internet for fulfilling their needs.

These advancements took away the winds under the wings of traditional BPOs.

• The technological solutions in the medium to long term became economical than a human doing a generalist task. 

• The efficiency gains of machine-made humans look unattractive. 

• Transparency, accuracy and ability to generate rich structured data from automated operations made generalists appear like chimpanzees in comparison to machines.

In the last two years of the pandemic alone the size of BPO has contracted to the extent of 24%, the 2/3rd that is still left is being slated to go down to half, in the matter of the next 12 to 18 months.

Why could the BPO industry as a whole not evolve with the changing market? Is a fascinating question, whilst answering that is an entire article in and of itself, I would say that ‘hyper inward focus’ is to be blamed for the ruins of the industry. The fact that this sector has not been attracting fresh capital for over 5 years now is somehow not catching their fancy. The aged leadership teams (50 Yrs +) has personal stake in keeping the charade on, as this late in the career changing stream would be impossible for them, so they shrewdly keep knitting stories of potential and show the 20% floating clients (who keep moving from one BPO to another) as territory for expansion to the promoters to keep their jobs going.

Much like Kodak, BlackBerry and Nokia were too busy with the make-believe world that they had created for themselves BPOs too are living the illusion of sustenance. The real world however has moved on, taking lesson from colossal failures of these one time giants.

Future of the BPO industry

• BPOs that metamorphose into tech products and platform organisations will survive and come out stronger on the other side of the churning. 

• Organisations like Concentrix, Wipro, WNS, Teleperformance, Infosys and Tech Mahindra are on the right track.

• The BPOs will have to find a way to put the great understanding of customer behaviour, their needs and wants that they have acquired over the last 2 decades, into developing tech products that solve the most pressing support questions of the day.

• They will have to move away from transaction handling and become consultative organisations that handle end to end customer journeys and not just what happens on the phone/chat/emails.

• Designing service philosophy and related processes.

• Budgeting service operations.

• Developing and deploying the platforms for support.

• Owning to the business outcome and billing for output rather than time spent on the job.

BPO that successfully catapults into an organisation that has skin in the entire vertical stack of service will not only survive but thrive.

Remember, what I opened this article with, outsourcing is here to stay - old devices of outsourcing (voice) will have to be given up in favour of new tools (cognitive tech).

With that, I would like to end this.

See you on the other side!

Till then stay safe and take very good care of yourselves. 

Remember vaccinations save lives.

BPO : Yesterday, today and tomorrow!

 ‘Business process outsourcing’, expansion of a three-letter word, BPO: brings food on the table of millions of Indians. This industry employees people in scores and mostly from the segment of the society in need of dire uplifting, immediate infusion of funds to make survival possible. BPO in the last 20 years has successfully created a new breed of the middle class, a layer just above the poverty line; a zone of youth, energy, aspirations, and dreams. The socio-economic classes above this layer snort at this group of hardworking professionals mostly because they consider call centre workers less educated (70%+ are indeed not even graduates) and not particularly well off (60%+ make just about minimum wage). Social stigma and prejudice are associated with this group all too easily and all too often. I have spent a portion of my professional career in this segment, working alongside women and men who bear the cross of biases proudly.

You should know this though that the thing about stereotypes is that ‘not all of them are based in reality’.

In my experience, I have found this group to be enterprising, smart, hardworking, sincere and forward-looking. These assemblages are also uniquely liberal, vocal and willing to participate in the change: both societal and those that shape the contours of business and economy of the country. This constituency is often not given the credit it deserves for taking 'working nights' into the mainstream. Outsourcing service providers are also not given the accolades it merits for bringing in young women to the workforce - paving way for social equality and financial liberation of the gender neglected for far too long. This industry is also the reason why computing and smartphones could become popular in an otherwise technologically backward country, like ours. A first close look at a working computer happened in the training rooms of their employers, for these millions of Indians. So in a way, the groundwork of creating a country that is conversant with computing and digital way of working has been prepared by this industry too, to the extent of its numbers.

1st decade of boom, followed by fast-paced 5 years and then the last 5 years of transformation was punctuated by the pandemic in early 2020. Things began looking shaky. It, however, did not take too long, for things to change completely. Let’s take one metric - work from home.

• Before pandemic.
  • Less than 1/10th of the workforce was working from home.
    • Only about 4 out of 10 in these 1 out of 10 used to be from the front line.
• A year in the pandemic.
  • 56% of all operations (at the peak of the pandemic) shifted base from office to home.
    • The rest did not or in some cases could not, for:
      • Logistical roadblock - transportation of computing infra and broadband connectivity.
      • The willingness of the clients to operate in the slump.

A study conducted says this :

The industry saw a double-digit decline in managed services in the second quarter of this year, with total global spending down 16%. A Deloitte poll conducted in April 2020 showed that 32% of businesses believe the end of the pandemic will bring with it a reduction in outsourcing.

One would assume that with things stacked the way they are, this industry would have lapped the change and must be working hard to re-invent itself, while it is true for a small and progressive section of the industry, the majority are still prisoners of the past - and in this reluctance to change lies the biggest folie of this otherwise upbeat industry.

A survey was conducted to find out how the workers would like to continue work in the future?

• 46% of the staff said that they are willing to continue working from home, as it helps them do better and also gives them time and resources needed to take care of their stuff at home. A win-win situation they say.
• The balance, 54% wish to return to the office.

One might think that aggregation of how individual employees think may not be enough for us to conclude how the industry as a whole thinks; especially the leadership. And there comes another segment of the study which, for the lack of a better term is - Perplexing.

• Only half of the BPO leaders think that the delivery, infra, environments, objectives of operation will change after we would have seen the pandemic off. The rest which is another half of the industry leaders believe that as soon as it is over, it is going to be a return to yesterday’s years. People going back to brick and mortar, office-based production.

A half is a significant volume which is still not for the permanent change, therefore - it is safe to assume that, what we are going to witness will bear the semblance to a hybrid model.

The question, however, is that is this the right approach? Will the world be better served with it?

Well, I for one, believe that this industry has reached a breaking point. What do I mean by "breaking point", you might wonder?

Here, 

• Believers in BPO will continue to pump capital and also see a surge in volume in the medium term. The assignments that the large players leave, don’t drop dead right away it first goes to the smaller operator for some time and then moves to the automation assembly, if not to the bin. This in-between period can be confused as the period of growth.
• Powered by popularity and simplicity of 'digital and distributed operations', the cost of entry, a barrier, has evaporated suddenly, which is bound to result in a spurt in a number of small players, (less than 500 seats). They too will get business in the medium term, the same waterfall logic of the economy will support them.
• Shifting demands - will create the illusion of growth.

So then the question is that, will such a strong economic force, a force for the good suddenly disappear? Will BPO become extinct in the next couple of years? The answer to that question is no. It won't, it will exist for some more time but just as landlines survive today but they do not mean much in the grand scheme of things. Like Smartphone has taken the place of PSTN, cognitive conversational AI-based tech solution will oust the current phone-based BPO industry. I pray, that it should not be seen as a bad outcome, 3 decades of glorious run built on an army of semi-skilled workforce generating billions upon billions in revenue is not a mean feat but as with most things, we are at the cusp of massive change, witness the change as it is happening.

I believe that what will become of the BPO industry can be understood by these phenomena.

Business Offering

• Voice to Technology: Primary offering of the BPO service providers will have to shift from phone-based conversational service to Technology platform based servicing such as no-code augmentation of ChatBOTs to the maintenance of Voice BOTs. BPOs will have a role to play in the training of the voice BOTs and other RPA operations. From 100% delivery to 90+% Audit and training that is the domain in which outsourcing is to shift.
• Voice to data: Data cleaning, alignment and error correction in upload and running of data operations, will be a new line of business for the BPO.
• Frontend operations to backend: Backend controls to do with designing and maintaining workflow operation will be another source of revenue for the BPO of tomorrow.

Operating Model

• Outcome-based billing: Transaction-based billing is soon going to be a thing of the past, servicing will be measured by outcome. So instead of how many calls/email answered (AHT based billing) to conversion/satisfaction based billing will kick in. Organisations are going to come out of volume game in the near future and focus on the delivery of the business KPIs exclusively.
• Distributed work: Work from home is a reality that can no longer be suppressed. This change is destined to alter the very concept of business continuity planning and execution.
• Lag in operation: Service operation is going to shift from current 'real-time' arrangement to 'scheduled framework' which will reduce the application of strengths of labour arbitrage. The volumes will become more and more predictable rendering WFM less and less applicable.
• Consultative Solution: BPOs, are poised to play a key role in the design of processes and will be involved in operations related to processing re-engineering, identifying errors in automation and in training the Artificial Intelligence models. Service philosophy design is also going to become the forte of the high-end BPOs.

People and culture

• Low-end data work: Bulk hiring of people who can conduct basic data Ops, to do with learning from and training of data models will begin.
• Upskilling: About 30% of the current staff will be upgraded to work alongside the machines on either data cleaning or audit/training of the models.
• Openwork,: Gig economy, specialised roles in BPOs are no longer going to be full-time employment roles, subletting of work and employing talent on a project basis will become the compulsion of the cost model that BPOs will have to operate under.

Sooner the industry accepts the facts as they stand today, the better will the next version of the industry be. I am excited to be a part of this inspiring change.

Do share your views with me on lk@lavkush.co.in

Have a good Sunday!