Bets on the Future!

As of 20th June 2020, reported and recognised COVID19 figures by the GOI, are 4,11,773 infections, 13,281 fatalities. To put things in perspective, we're adding on an average over 13K cases, every day, for past few days, we're 3rd largest in daily caseload increase, 4th largest in the overall volume of cases in the world and hold the dubious 8th rank on overall mortality. All of this when India's ranking on testing is 147th among 192 countries, to give you some perspective, the tiny nation of Nepal is testing 2.7 times more than us on a per million population basis, as per John Hopkins university study. Many experts (Professor Jha, Harvard Medical school) believe that the actual number of cases in India must be anywhere between 4 to 6 crores.

The entire planet is reeling under this unprecedented crisis.

We as a country, however, are not so much in the same boat with the rest of the world as in the same storm, as far as the COVID19 risk is concerned, because our public health infrastructure is not among the best in the world! Two people hardly agree on the same thing in the current dangerously polarised times let alone nations, but a unicellular pathogen has effortlessly brought about consensus among people divided by nationalities, ethnicities, race, political affiliation and religious views, by and large. The world has dedicated its entire collective cognitive bandwidth towards observing and studying ways to get better of the virus or to learn ways to survive with it. I am gravitating towards conceding to the possibilities of a shared future with the virus. Finest minds in the world have been examining the pathogen closely and yet, a comprehensive study exhaustively covering ways in which the transmission happens has not come out. Between WHO announcement that ‘human to human’ transmission is not a thing to declaring humans as the sole vector, from 'mask is not necessary' to 'mask saves lives' from surfaces do not spread to they do to again they do not. Debate on whether the virus is aerosol or not has also not been settled, thus far. In conclusion, the human race still does not know much about the virus. Those of us who have avoided the outside world completely thus far are safe. We are hedging all of our future hopes on just this flimsy fact.

At this point, you must wonder, what is the point of it all? 

The world has been dealing with this menace for nearly 7 months now and it does not even know if we are in the beginning, middle or the end of the destruction cycle. Does that not say a lot about, how certain our world view has been? Lockdown made a great case for itself, political leadership across the world sold it on premium and ordinary citizens who do not have a way of knowing better lauded it. By the beginning of May 2020, the shine started wearing off the panacea of administrative isolation- lockdown, as the number of cases did not show any sign of slowing down, both at a global and the national level. Administrative restrictions may not have hurt the virus as much as it promised to but it surely nearly decimated economies around the world. I borrow from Mr Bajaj, who said in an interview to Rahul Kanwal (Right-wing journalist who works hard to appear neutral), "that we flattened the wrong curve". He was referring to the flatlining of the GDP. The sharp decline in revenue collection of the Government and the fear of resulting fiscal deficit shook it back into senses and it quietly introduced ‘unlock 1.0’. Revenue starved businesses in a heartbeat reopened, ignoring the fact that the risk of infection had gone substantially up, in the hope to see things resume, volumes return. Recovery, predictively, has been mixed, mainly on account of high unemployment causing severe lack of demand - but some business is better than no business. Hospitality, F&B, tourism and travel etc, still haven’t seen any respite and the outlook at least for next 8 to 10 months does not look promising for them, either. 

Geopolitics and societal structures are undergoing massive transformation, we do not know yet, for good or for the worse. But the change is visible. We can’t, however, say the same for the businesses around us. Do not get me wrong, yes ‘work from home’ has become the new excel macro. Big and small alike have lapped it with ease now, even the ones who were not in favour of it before, because it promises business continuity and cost-saving, among other things. Distributed and digitalised work in sectors that do not require congregation or special equipment, like let’s say in manufacturing - is gaining steam. Knowledge workers, who I also call ‘keyboard warriors’ have all acclimatised themselves to working in shorts from the corner of their homes. It is all good, if not for the health and mental well being of the workers then at least for the environment. Vehicular traffic and related carbon emissions have gone down and as a result, all of us are breathing better quality air- that is a clear win!

But apart from the superficialities, has the core business model shifted to anything different?

By and large, the answer to that question is a NO. Zomato choosing to also deliver grocery in the lockdown or call centres shifting to phone-based dialers hardly qualify, at max, it can be called mild manoeuvring. Has the rate of technology adoption been accelerated? When you look at the larger picture, the answer is no. 'Working from home' or calling one another on zoom all day, is not tech adoption, it is just a change of scenery. The tech backbone and the architecture for 90% of the organisations remain absolutely unchanged: 'same processes, same application and largely the same turnaround times'. In fact, if anything mega tech projects have been put on hold, some indefinitely for operating cash crunch that most businesses are having to face up to, these days. Serious degradation of value in the real estate sector is being noticed and that when coupled with -ve 4% GDP growth outlook, I suspect things will get worse before they get better. Where does that leave us?

The jury is out on the number of organisations that will actually survive to see the other side of the crisis, reports on the closure of 30% of MSMEs which contribute to about 37% of the GDP and 40% of Indian exports have already shut shop. Service organisations have seen anything between 30% to 50% loss of business. Buying capacity of the population has been severely dented with record unemployment about 42% when organised and unorganised sectors are clubbed. Those still employed in a paying job are earning, anything between 10% to 50% less on account of wage cuts. Which means there is lesser money in the market making the rounds. 

A wise man once said, "business is not a pond, it is a river". Resources flow from one end of the stream to the other, along the way those who dip in it collect some water for their consumption (both current and future needs), both by means of employment and investment. When upstream funnel size gets reduced, the downstream impact becomes pervasive. 

Running a business is hard!

Number 1 priority of any organisation is to keep afloat; so when value evaporates, costs have to be adjusted in proportion. Not all cost cuttings are done equally though, with varying degree of success, industries across the board have managed to get it right. Managing outflow of cash in the know of the quantum of inflow does not require much of anything. But steps that come after it are of critical importance, their complexities are immense. Mostly on account of how little that we know about the future that we should prepare for. Despite the operating cash issues and the slump in the demand investments in the future will have to be made, not pledging will mean forgoing the possibilities of future prosperity. 

What to bet on however is unclear. I might be naval-gazing here but, the economy of knowledge is the basket in which I would keep all my eggs, even if I could take just one shot at it.

Physical infrastructure: In the medium term the value of infra and real estate will see degradation but it will eventually pick up again in the long term. The rate of population growth is the reason why I say this. Irrespective of what people do, if we survive as a race, we will need space and physical infrastructure. Therefore, investing in it now for 'cash-surplus' corporations is not a bad option, especially because they stand to reap the benefits of acquiring the properties at price discounted by the recessionary spiral, the economy is unwillingly living through. One should, however, be prepared to remain calm in the prolonged period of hibernation induced by slow demand, the capital might appear to suffocate. But if you can hold on to your nerve, returns are going to be more than handsome, in a few years from now. Let’s say in about 4 to 5 years.

Manufacturing is another segment where we are about to witness a sea change. Industry 4.0 is going to be about connectivity and communication, a barrage of censors providing inputs to smart algorithms to facilitate real-time decision-making, all without any considerable human involvement. Powered by data and automation, digitalization is poised to transform every step of the manufacturing process, from supply chain and enterprise to the shop floor and end-users. Smart manufacturing will vastly improve throughput, uptime, and performance while reducing overhead, operating, and capital costs. Emerging tech like Industrial IoT, FOG computing, edge computing and advanced robotics will form the bedrock of change. Investments made in these technological platforms are bound to grow well. 

Logical infra: Solution augmentation happens to process needs of the market and the market is a microcosm of the society, a continued spell of the pandemic is bound to re-write fundamentals of the social contract that have existed for the last 4 centuries. Humans live in flocks too (we are intelligent sheep). We are a social animal, we access what we need in groups. Our needs and desires follow the principle of batches. One man gets wheels, all follow - 'Monkey see... Monkey do'. (We share our DNA with more than one species, let's keep it for another day)

Before, we conclude that the logical infra is a horse that we’d like to put our bet on, it is essential to take a cursory look at the changing landscape around us. 

We're a poor country, our per capita income is just about 2.5K USD. From this small pool, most of the expenditure happens on community building and survival, individual needs in most cases remain primitive and not too distant from the bare essentials, for a large part of the population. But when you contrast it with demographic, you’ll also notice that a vast majority of this country is at an age, which is considered a gold mind for impulse buying. When we see it in light of poor financial literacy in the country you’d understand that, if an ordinary Indian youth was left with last 100 dollars he is more likely to spend it on trends, then saving it for the rainy day. From that behaviour emerges 'aspiration' of the economy - From cloths to electronic to travel (Simplifying the behaviour to make this argument readable and concise)

Let me give you an example: 

87% of all tablet users own a computer, there is not one thing/operation that the tablet can do but a computer can’t. In fact, there are a variety of things that a tablet can’t handle, not nearly as efficiently as a computer can and yet people who already own a computer buy a tablet too, sometimes more than one. (I'm included in it)

Aspiration for the ‘new’ is a strong economic stimulus among the young people which is why all the young (Avg age of the citizens) countries are of special interest to the large consumer goods corporations. Electronics in India and China rock, for the same reason (Though China is 5 times the size of India's GDP).

Now that we have addressed the aspiration part of the demand. Let’s analyse how the pervasive internet is shaping social behaviours. The world that saw the internet as an alternative for information, before COVID19, is now convinced that the web is the primary mode of exchange, even in the third world societies, like ours. Real-time and reliable Instant messengers, quick and easy digital payment methods, convenience and price benefits of e-commerce retail, had educated people on how the alternative is the new mainstream, subtly, in last few years, but imposed social distancing brought that understanding to the fore. Deep penetration of smartphones in the company of wireless and cheap internet network has liberated consumers from the exclusive relationship that they had with physical retail stores.

Stores are on their way of becoming the new warehouse and retail stores are about to permanently become an application.

Google search for information has long replaced libraries for a lot of people, location tracking, the ability to compare prices from different suppliers gives the buyer the false (everything on the internet is curated, it does not exist organically) impression of being in charge. Consumers like when they think they are making the choices. The Internet has another distinct property: it is open 24*7.

From popularity, usefulness and adoption of the internet as the primary method of exchange and given special COVID19 circumstances below business opportunities emerge.

1. Tech Platform: From Advertising to lead generation to, informing the customer about the product and services, to getting on with the actual sign up to purchase to billing to delivery to post-sale query/complaint handling to return and refund; everything can be managed digitally. Not just that all backend processes, like demand estimation, we have touched upon manufacturing earlier in the article, supply chain to human resource management to finance and accounting - all of it can also be digitised. Pick whichever part of the customer journey that you are comfortable with and build a tech platform for it. The next trillion dollars in the Indian economy is going to come from platforms, as per the research conducted by the Boston consulting group.

2. Advanced data modelling: Digital wandering leaves data trail, even those expeditions that honour consumer data privacy, do enough for someone to catalogue a replica of your persona: your buying ability, your impulses, your likes and dislikes, your consumption rate, your refill propensity, down to the sec in which you are likely to make a decision. There is data on who you speak with, in what tone and what manner, what is it that you speak about and what is it you are wanting to convey. You may think of yourself as a private person but nothing about you is private anymore in the world of the internet.

Data set is used to create both descriptive and as well as predictive models. Principles of data science, behavioural economics, behavioural psychology, coupled with the capability of AI and machine learning are used in conjunction with market trends, capital and goods movement to exact future demands and way to fulfil those are appropriated too. Even if your model is 50% accurate, you are talking about getting it right once in 2 tries, that is way way better than sitting and hoping for a customer to decide in your favour. So if you have the stomach for data, get on with it and form a data product.

COVID19 induced human tragedy and capital erosion is disastrous and heartbreaking. But the only way to not lose to it completely is by preparing for the next frontier. History tells us that whenever a change disruptive and extensive enough gets forced on humans by nature. Humans adjust by eliminating or automating the items at the bottom of the pyramid, the most basic items are attacked first. Before World War II there use to be a job profile called, “Knocker Upper” job of this person was to knock on the door of the Europeans to wake them up in the morning. Alarm clock drove them out of jobs. Similarly, all the basic and unintelligent things that are today performed by humans will siege to exist, i.e - most over the counter retail interactions, simple bookkeeping, telephone-based reminders to customers to renew and recharge and pay are the kinds of job that will just disappear overnight.

"Are you investing today for your future security", is the question that deserves to have all your attention.

On that note, see you on the other side!

Sab Changa Si!

 

Do we mindlessly pursue idea/habit/decision/comment which has a large following? The simple answer to that question is a straightforward NO, we pick things which make sense to us or which serve a purpose that we hold dear. A concept can not be deemed right or wrong basis who or how many second it. Every choice must be weighed against every piece of wisdom known, before qualifying it legit. When democracy is reduced to a tug-of-war it becomes 'mobocracy', in which numbers alone count for everything! Let’s take a moment to acknowledge the grave challenges this great nation of ours faces today from suffocating economy to soaring unemployment and food inflation, growing social injustice, a crime against women the most heinous of all 'rape' is on the rise - yet what do we hear the current political dispensation talk about, often if not always? ‘Hindu Vs Muslim, India Vs Pakistan’, they have managed to wickedly destroy our collective intelligence. Don't we live in times when media houses shamelessly shout ‘मंदी को नहीं मोदी को देखो"? What are we doing to ourselves?

Given the feeble global standing of academic structures of our great motherland in the world, a government that should work towards improving the state of education is today too busy destroying whatever is left of the leading learning institutions. It has gone ahead and astronomically increased not just tuition fees but also tariffs of other ancillary services like hostels, canteen, etc. What would such a disastrous move cost us in the long term? Economically weak but deserving students won’t get the education that could have successfully lifted them from the rut of poverty and when you see it in knowledge that India is a poor country where more than 250 million people are forced to survive below the poverty line defined to give rulers (It was done by Congress) a face-saver; so it will not be wrong to deduce that current government is for ignorance and poverty. Education is not BJP’s top priority why else would a democratic country not get to see or know where its head of state went to get educated, his academic achievements are as fictitious as his slogans “सबका साथ सबका विकास और सबका विश्वास' whereas what he seems to be doing is 'सबका विनाश'. We have got a minister who was a graduate in her affidavit in 2014, 2019 faced up she regressed to being the 12th pass, 'क्यूँकि स्नातक भी कभी बारहवीं पास थी'. No less than the HRD minister could not defend the questions that got raised on his Ph.D. - So we, the people, or as Telegraph puts it, we the Idiots, should not expect his lordship government to work for the betterment of education.  

Socialist, sovereign & secular republic is how our founding fathers chose to define us; this idea was not only apt but also progressive, liberal and thoughtful at the same time. India is required to be a welfare state because the majority of its citizens struggle to make ends meet even after 72 years of self-rule. Things like decent education, timely and able medical care are still seen as a luxury in our country, even among those who live in high rise buildings, drive German motorcars and use the best of the computing resources available on the planet today. It is rather unfortunate that our government is working actively and decidedly against each of those founding values, it is particularly opposed to the plurality of our republic. It is hell-bent on destroying it bit after bit before we get to the war BJP has wedged against secularism. Let’s take a moment to appreciate the hypocrisy that they champion, in some detail.

Dynasty in politics : 

Since 1999, the Congress has had 36 dynastic MPs elected to the Lok Sabha, with the BJP not far behind with 31. In 1999, the beginning of the 13th Lok Sabha, 8% of Congress members of parliament were either descended from or married to former MPs, only slightly ahead of the 6% among the BJP.

The most similar density of dynastic politicians was in 2009 when the Congress and BJP had 11% and 12% dynasts elected, respectively.



Read more on : https://scroll.in/article/918234/is-the-bjp-less-dynastic-than-the-congress-not-so-lok-sabha-data-shows

Corruption & Criminal Record:

Across parties, of the 521 Lok Sabha members of parliament (MPs), 106 (20%) are charged with serious offenses such as murder, inciting communal disharmony, kidnapping and crimes against women.

As many as 55% of these are from the BJP (92), compared with 2% from the Congress (7), 3% from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) (6), 17% from the Shiv Sena (15) and 7% from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) (7), an analysis by National Election Watch (NEW), a campaign run by the advocacy group Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), shows.

Read more on : https://www.indiaspend.com/55-of-lok-sabha-mps-facing-criminal-charges-are-from-bjp/

Transparency : 

The essential problem with electoral bonds is that it removes transparency and accountability in political funding. Voters have the right to know which fat cats fund their political parties and if such funding has an influence on policies framed by governments formed by these parties. 80%+ of these donations have been received by the BJP, this very tool has made them the richest political party! Let’s not forget that they misled the nation by stating that these bonds were anonymous, recent findings have revealed that they can be easily tracked following the Bond number and details of the buyer!  

Read more at:

//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/72187122.cms?from=mdr&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Gandhi Vs Godse : 

It is not a secret that the brand Gandhi is powerful and relevant, embracing him at international gatherings gives one a certain kind of immediate acceptance and respect; therefore the 56’ chested man leaves no opportunity to go by without making the most of it. But when it comes to actions, he favors those who worship his killers with ticket, ensures their victory and even places them in high offices.  

Terrorism & National Security :

Modi supporters often invoke “देश बचेगा तब तो अर्थव्यवस्था काम आएगी” to shield the supreme leader from the criticism that has been coming his way for his abysmal performance on the economy. He makes moving speeches to drill a fear deep among ordinary Indians from Pakistan and from Muslims at large, to the enticed public he then presents himself as the only savior. You’d often hear his followers saying “ If not Modi then who? “. The fact is that there has been a rise in not just the number of incidents of infiltration but also fatalities under his incompetent and careless watch. When it comes to security and terror; Modi has failed not only on the administrative ground but has also lost miserably on the moral standards by letting Pragya Singh Thakur who is a prime accused in the Malegaon terror attack became an MP on BJP ticket. He did not stop there, he even elevated her to a parliamentary committee. Only when nationwide protest grew strong, his party reacted superficially, to give people the false perception of his being serious, she was stripped of that committee but she continues to be a BJP MP.   

Frugality & Hard Work : 

In the last 8 months alone our man has addressed 142 political rallies if you add all the foreign trips just the traveling time and other speeches at GOI events- you’ll see that our man is practically working for furthering the BJP political agenda 85%+ of his time in office. He is either busy in some state election or a foreign trip. His attendance in the Parliament is lowest among all PMs that India has had! I will say nothing about frugality because we know that he has spent more exorbitantly than any other Indian PM on his PR. Practically all of the media houses have been bought over by advertisements. 

Hinduism and Beef: 

His silent approval has been motivating those who see it legitimate to kill provocative by mere suspicion of beef and his Bhakts carry out these punitive Lynching in the name of the Hindu religion as they consider the cow to be Holy if not a Goddess herself than nothing less than a deity. Even on the question of Cow BJP is inconsistent, in the NE and in Goa where people enjoy their steak, our man is ok, allowing Beef to be served hot on a platter everywhere else his men kill for it, while he chooses to conveniently look the other way.

These facts point to the conclusion that BJP under Modi  is as hypocritical as one can get and all that they care about is fooling voters into casting in their favour.

Let’s come back to the Tug-of-war that we spoke about in the first part of this article. The country has witnessed how they bulldozed CAB through both houses of the parliament. CAB is a prelude to the sinister NRC that will be pushed upon us, as a result of which if a Ram is not able to produce documents he will still retain his citizenship but on the other hand same failure will render Rahim stateless. This is not only unconstitutional, discriminatory but also immoral and is incumbent upon every Indian to fight against it in tooth and nails. This disaster in the making will render Muslims the largest minority sidelined, reduced and disenfranchised: All Indians must oppose it.

There I say on my twitter handle 

@LKstates

#1 Discrimination against ’one’ is discrimination against all!

#2 Diversity that all of us have been proudly giving away as a way of introduction of our motherland comes from various minorities that inhabit this country,with #CAB coming into effect we will be stripped of this advantage as #BJP moves its brute majority to alienate the largest minority.

#3 Dear India, 

When you graciously hand brute majority to fascist forces this is how they cast assault on the character of the constitution, fundamentals of this nation & tenets of social fabric of India. Secularism is not an idea to be tempered with, it is central to our identity!

#4 #CitizenshipAmendmentBill2019 the most ghastly form of an onslaught that #BJP is forcing upon the composite nature of our society & nation at large! All but #Muslims is most bizarre, undemocratic, and plain evil of all things that #Modi has unleashed on our nation. Egregious & sad!

#5 A majority that doesn’t protect the rights of its minorities crumbles under the weight of its own doing! History is littered with examples that suggest that collective oppression & exclusionary actions lead to less than ideal results. India must in one voice reject #CAB & #BJP

#6 Illiterate of the 21st century is not someone who can’t read and write, we have moved past that, current day knowledge disability is not knowing to reject discrimination, it is to consider fundamentals of natural justice unnecessary! Know someone with that ailment? Do help them!

#7 Dear #Modi, 

Do you know how bad your #CitizenshipAmendmentBill2019 decision is? Well, let me break it to you, even #ArnabGoswami from your PR rig @republic finds it repulsive, retrograde & regressive. He termed it worst form of majority appeasement - drop it, and say sorry!

#8 If you’re a student of political history (like me)you’d know every political movement that gets vehement support of students of the day becomes successful. Don’t take my word for it, read abt #JP movement or how students made a difference in civil rights movement! #CAB must go!

#9 If a billion people were to come out on the streets, all at once, demanding #CAB to be thrown out of the window with its creators would it happen? Yes it will. The administration doesn’t have the wherewithal all to use force against a gathering of a billion, they cannot! So get together!    

Undemocratic India!

Discrimination by the law is unjust, on that account both Article 370 and 35A, did not have a place in present-day India. Special status by definition is discriminatory and particularly hated by the Indians who live outside J&K and did not benefit from its provisions.  The gripe, however, has been getting relentless support from the view that anti-India sentiments were breeding freely in a land that enjoyed at the cost of the rest of us (Indian). The idea of ‘one nation- one flag- one constitution’ is a legitimate one, the fact that it is being received so well by Indians is a satisfactory proof, for most. I’m not going to challenge the constitutionality of the move which is being seen as not only bold and decisive but also nationalistic by the supporters of the government; because I still hope that, nothing that is unlawful beyond a reasonable doubt is going to stand the legal scrutiny by the Apex court. So if it is indeed wrong, the supreme court with right it by a verdict. What I’m hugely concerned about is democratic decency or should I say morality in governance, though. Hyperactive Indian media most of which is appreciative of everything that Mr Modi does, according to them, even the way the man breathes is the real Indian way to inhale and exhale, has already told, retold and in some cases even misread the history of Kashmir coming together with other 540+ princely states to form the union of India as it exists today, doesn’t require my endorsement. Everything that gets done, unknowingly but definitively, forms the basis of what will be done in the future and that aspect of it alone, should encourage the whole of the democratic world and not just India to ponder over this historic decision. 

Does the end justify the means in your world? 

Well, if it does, then there is no space for a conversation, you can leave this page right here and move to other titillating arguments that are being screeched from the rooftop to further the agenda of those who are strong enough to shape the narrative of the nation. But then if you are part of the minuscule minority that does value method just as much as the result, then you and I should spend some more time on this together. We know how the BJP cleverly, formed the government with Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP and then pulled back support midterm to push Governer’s rule. We are fully aware of the arguments that were given to support delaying of fresh elections in the valley for as long as 13 months. Truth is that if it had happened, not only Omar would have seated the CM’s chair one more time but made it practically impossible for BJP led NDA to abrogate 370 and annul 35A. So the masterminds, amended article 367 to elevate the legislative assembly to the stature of constituent assembly, in this case, and then letting Indian parliament surrogate for state assembly of J&K, then it took consent from the representative that it had appointed to the state itself and then superimposed president’s notice to make what we know has happened. Does it smell of a coup? A constitutional coup, yes, of course, it does!

The monument that made Kashmiris hide their inhibition on their way to what we (citizens from the rest of the country) call the ‘mainstream’ has been obliterated, to be never erected back again. An attempt will have to be made to remove the debris of the destruction, as step one, of infusing clarity into what is perhaps the most chaotic intricacy of independent India. Here are a few things that will be found in my view. 

Shattered Pakistani Dream: This is a delightful thing to find, not because, as Indians, we must eschew everything from across the border but because their claim on Kashmir has been illegal, immoral, and evil to say the least. Pakistan sponsored terror has claimed more than a hundred thousand lives and uncountable souls disturbed with their untimely and tragic demise. Two complete generations have been burning in the unholy fire. With this move, Mr Modi has comprehensively briefed the world that he is determined to take back whatever is rightfully ours. Fatuous offer from President Trump for mediation has also been answered in a BOLD and CAPITAL NO! Pakistan which is begging for 6 billion dollars and is willing to surrender its economic sovereignty for such a petty sum is in no position to deal with it. Even if PM Imran tries, he will wipe himself off the face of Pakistan for real and for good. But I suspect he would, anyway.

The Kashmiri groups: Mainstream leaders, the Abdullah clan, Mufti mandal, and new breeds of politicians that mushroomed months before the general election of 2019, now have before them the rare opportunity of finding a fresh account to shine their politics on but because it will essentially require shaping people’s perception towards accepting what has been done, it will be twice as difficult for those guys because for long they have survived by passively supporting the idea of either freedom from both India and Pak or Freedom from just India. PDP has been most notorious. The separatist will use this development to their advantage, for them this decision must be equivalent to striking a pot of gold. They will use it to inflame anti-India sentiments. Deflecting ordinary citizens may appear an easy task in their wicked lab, they will go for no just regular citizens but also those who have been for a long time pro India. The third category is the poor people of Kashmir; they will find themselves in a split again. They will need to make choices yet again; we hope and pray that they choose the republic of India over everything else.

The corpse of democracy: Let me in most certain and unequivocal terms say that the manner in which this ‘operation’ was carried out is by no means one of the finest display of democratic spirit. It has not only been undemocratic, rash, ill-thought of but also against the federal structure and soul of our parliamentary democracy. A few years ago, I would have never imagined something like this but then realities of today are different in which anything is possible. Democracy is a government of the people, for the people and by the people. And where were the people in this decision? They were locked in their own homes, their street was combed by the unprovoked imposition of sec 144, they were completely cut off from information and all modes of communication. Phones were dead, the internet was not yielding anything, even the democratically elected representatives of the people were confined in unexplained home arrest. The entire world watched Indian parliament steamroll abrogation with the force of brute majority in both houses of the parliament, barring the very people it impacted. Already guarded streets of Kashmir was supplied with more troops. Rest of India celebrated and congratulated PM Modi and his friend Shah. Integration of Kashmir with rest of India is being sighted as the prime objective of this move by the government, then we can safely say that this marriage does not have the consent of the people of Kashmir; rest of India seems happy without it, which is worrisome. 

I’m not even wanting to comment on the irony which surrounds supreme leaders address to the nation, in which he spoke about Kashmir for 40 minutes, all of us heard him but the affected people of Kashmir did not have access to the television broadcast.

I would have also applauded this decision if the government displayed the will to listen to the people of Kashmir. If it called for consultation, allowed mainstream politicians to freely voice their opinion both for and against the move if it did not lock people and communication down; I would have supported Mr Modi. Remember, numbers are on the side of the BJP, allowing democratic ways, would not have made it difficult for them to win it in the voting in both houses of the parliament, yet he made the deliberate choice to move unilaterally, disregarding rich democratic traditions of the largest democratic country on the face of planet earth.

Abrogation of Sec 370A and annulment of 35A would have then become a good example; currently, it is not! Article 3 of the constitution was also not spared from the legal trickery, a full-blown state tore down into two union territories. HM Amit did announce from the floor of the parliament that statehood would be restored as normalcy returns. It is anybody's guess that in 70 years with 370 on the situations did not get normal, would it ever become so after it getting revoked? For all practical purposes, this is what is going to be the design of the northernmost part of our country.

What this regime needs to know is that while Kashmir can momentarily deflect attention from the failing economy and mounting unemployment, it will never make people forget the questions around falling rupees and rising debt, permanently. It would have been awesome to hear from Mr PM on that as well, in the address that he submitted to the nation!

Goodbye!

Raw Wisdom

I admire, Narendra Modi, the politician, a lot more than Modi the PM or Modi the wannabe statesman. You can like him for who he is, the ideas he represents or hate him for the very reasons but you certainly can’t ignore his strong presence. With his bag of good, bad & ugly messages he has dominated the Indian mindset, discussion rooms and aspirations in ways which are not easy to achieve for any politician. Both his admirers and adversaries draw his parallels with the Iron lady, Ms Indira Gandhi, but I will go on to say that his clutches over what can be seen, read and heard is a tad bit stronger than that of the lady, who on her own, decided to break Pakistan into two. People who are elder to me and have active memories of her days may disagree with me and I’d happily concede to them as I was only born the year she was assassinated. I was nearly 4 months old on the day of her killing. So my reading of her is from books, news articles and a few youtube videos that exist today. Indira Gandhi has attracted a disproportionate amount of literature given her audacious and most brazen emergency decision. People who like reading and knowing the political history of India will have to read about her extensively and so I had to without much choice. If you happen to be a Modi supporter, do not judge me for I learned more about Congress than I did about BJP/RSS, do bear with me and note that there is actually more to read about them than your party. But do not be disappointed you have a man now who would in very many ways leave her behind when it comes to being studied, heard and talked about. That is our very own Modi!


The fate of India has already been sealed, given the fact that we’ve come close to the end of the polling, as I type this article people are making their voices heard in the 6th phase of a long election season. On the 23rd the counting will reveal, people’s desire. Who will be sworn in may require additional juggling, though, should no party win a clear majority on its own, which is very likely. At this point, we do not know, at least, I do not. In a democratic setup, politics becomes essential, everything that gets done, happens within the policy framework. Therefore it is greatly necessary for people to participate, the mood of the nation, gets built by these deliberations. India is a complex country to govern, from its maddening geographical extent to mind-boggling cultural and ethnic diversity, everything about us is unparalleled. And therefore, whether we like it or not, no one Idea can appeal to all Indians equally. We’re the fastest growing economy for over 8 years now, the top tier in the developing world. At the same time, we’re also a country that hasn’t effectively cracked bread and butter, health and sanitation, education and employment, code, at a policy framework level. A vast majority of our country does not have access to clean drinking water, a roof over their heads or unpolluted air to breathe. We’re still breeding at a dull-witted rate, 1.3 bn. already and counting. The caste system is still prevalent, the girl child is discriminated against, untouchability is still a consistent Idea in many parts of the country. The story for gender diversity is not a happy one either, women empowerment is still a fancy urban design. Male dominance and majoritarianism have costed us in purely economic terms about 38% of our net worth as a country (estimation is from an economist article); if we had succeeded in creating a society that values both the genders equally, we would have been 38% stronger and more prosperous: perhaps a developed nation too.

Are these issues getting discussed in the political addresses? The clear and honest answer is a no! Yes, there have been sporadic talks and half-hearted efforts have also been made to address some of the issues that I have listed above, but every well-intentioned man/women, when faced with the challenge of the election, forgets, everything and starts playing to the gallery. And then idealism and reforms take a back seat. Elected sitting PM of world's largest democracy says “ Main ati pichri jati ka hu”, “main pathan hu, etc : What does it say about the prime minister and more than him what does it say about we the people? If we did not care about caste would he flaunt it? That is the question that Indian people should ask themselves. In most elections, the agenda gets set by the shortcomings of the incumbent, mainly; economic failures and other social events that can drag those in office in poor light, more or less. This election has been different though, the agenda was not set by the opposition, they did try but couldn’t simply match the surround sound that Modi & Shah led BJP built around things that do not matter in our everyday life. The election campaign of 2019 is not so much about the content or the character but reach and proliferation. On the one side, you have the mighty Modi who seems to have the wealth of the world to spray on every medium of communication available, from Radio to 24*7 television, to internet powered content on social media, mobile apps, the print publication and even movies. In fact for the first time, we saw, how movies of a certain popular Canadian actor with a famous Hindi name in the last five years delivered several beautiful Bollywood hits to further the communication objective of the ruling party. It did not stop there, the same prince of the Tinseltown also interviewed the PM in an apolitical exchange, which soon was trending on youtube. Video ads and television commercials existed for a long time and they continued in this election as well. It is anyone’s guess that the money spent on publicity crossed the permissible limit within minutes of the campaign.

What has therefore been the theme of the campaign of  2019 elections? Opposition lingered in setting the narrative, they too have tried, but nothing even close to the spectacle that Narendra managed. Opposition leaders were also airborne for a lot of their election travel, gave interviews and had articles written on their areas of interest but they simply did not get the airtime that they should have in the mainstream media. I can’t with certainty say that they would still manage to create a decent electoral fortune for themselves or will they suffer, even more! Realities of this election do match with a few things that have been tried in the past with a varying degree of success, let’s look at some the key items to understand how political event management has been done in this election.

Election Theme setting: India shinning from the past made its grand entry in the form of “Main Bhi Chowkidar”: Quite an event, very well managed, people flocked in high numbers to express their solidarity with the idea. Social Media name edits, numerous quotes, +ve memes and what not. The event did cross the line, in some sense, because it had a little portion towards the end trying to emulate a war scene to underscore the surgical strike bravado. Nevertheless, for the supporters, it deserved Oscars. Adversaries of BJP and Modi did use it to base, ‘Chowkidar chor hain’ slogan, that too seems to resonate with people. It upset the Apex court though.

Untruth the new mainstream: Not too long ago, when Indian prime minister spoke, people apprehended with respect, sincerity and attention. There has not been a history of incidents in the past, in which the PM in his official capacity has said things which were found incorrect. This rule, however, had started growing weak and brittle with UPA2’s excessive strains, there is no way it could have lifted the heavy weight of the strong man Modi, it shattered after 2014. As a result of which all kinds of bizarre politically motivated lies were spoken with incredible confidence and poise. Here a few:

#1  At a campaign rally in Bangalore on April 13, 2019, Modi deployed his favourite oratorical tool, the rhetorical question. “Was there even a single terrorist attack on the country when your chowkidar was on duty?” ( The wire)

& Then he talks about Pulwama and asks for votes, the contradiction wasn’t spaced even a few lines apart.

#2

These are just a few samples you can look up this website https://www.modilies.in/ it does an excellent job of fact-checking the PM.

Fact-checking the PM wasn't an idea that existed before Modi in the prominence that it does now. With his kind of resources, if he is making such blunders one can only imagine how hollow must be the academic grasp of the PM. There is another theory that suggests that these willful slip-ups were engaged in to mislead generally uninformed crowd. Modi made the lack of education among ordinary Indian a tool to swing emotions.

Discrediting dissent and bunking questions: The PM did not take one question from the press in a free unscripted conference, in fact, in his entire tenure, there was no press conference, none at all. This in itself is proof of the fact that in his world he doesn’t see himself accountable to anyone. He is his own man. He has however managed to effectively tame a vast majority of Indian media, who blush and blossom when they ask him questions like the below.


App thakte khyun nahiApke paas batua hain kyaKon sa tonic lete hainEk fakiri hain app me60 mahine me itna kuch kiya hain, itna hua hain
He agrees to answer if questions have the potential of adding to his propaganda of establishing himself as larger than life, the perfect man to lead image. His party workers and ministers have for long been suggesting those who have committed the sin of being critical of the PM to leave for Pakistan. Disagreeing with his idea is being anti-national. In the minds of his supporters, Modi is the nation, much like Indira use to be to her patrons. Urban Naxal, Lutyen, Tukre Tukre Gang, Award Wapsi gang: are the phrases that PM and his close confidants use for those who have expressed serious concern over the macho, majoritarian, divided and polarised India that he wants to create to keep his electability intact. Rejecting dissent and rebuking questions have now graduated to discrediting institution :about 4 yrs ago when Time Magazine published Modi’s interview lauding his plans; BJP supporters jumped in excitement, for them it was a national pride, today when the same prestigious publication is calling Modi’s bluff out in the open, they find the magazine frivolous! There is an army defending his unscientific and even plain stupid comments; like the one that he has made on how he thought clouds would help the air strike move undetected from the radars etc. People latch on and give all kinds of arguments to save the face of the supreme leader.

The great Indian political circus will end on the 23rd hopefully with a mandate that gives Mr Modi some solitary time and much-needed rest but I’m afraid the trend that he has set in will continue and get worse in days to come. The country that has been terribly polarised will have to make a lot of effort, burn a lot of steam, to come together again. Healing is going to be effort-intensive. In times like these, I miss the sanity that Bapu has professed in his writings.

Argumentative and enthusiastic Indians will move from elections to cricket, patiently and in hope, reel under the adventure of whichever side that wins 2019 because they know that they will get to choose again in another 5 yrs.

With that let me end this, if you haven’t voted still, do so!